Tuesday, November 13, 2007

These free agents are stoking the Hot Stove

The hottest number in baseball’s Hot Stove season: $6 billion. As in, revenue generated in 2007, as in $2 billion more than was generated three years ago, as in almost as much as the mighty NFL.

So when superagent Scott Boras goes to hoodwink another general manager in the coming weeks, you can be sure everyone in the room will know how healthy the sport is financially.

Too bad the free-agent pool isn’t as robust. Sure, Boras’ prized client, Alex Rodriguez, is available, but only if you’re willing to pay $30 million or so for the next 10 years or so. There also are several solid outfielders for sale, but there’s not much more. The pool of available pitchers is especially thin.

The hottest number in baseball’s Hot Stove season: $6 billion. As in, revenue generated in 2007, as in $2 billion more than was generated three years ago, as in almost as much as the mighty NFL.

So when superagent Scott Boras goes to hoodwink another general manager in the coming weeks, you can be sure everyone in the room will know how healthy the sport is financially.

Too bad the free-agent pool isn’t as robust. Sure, Boras’ prized client, Alex Rodriguez, is available, but only if you’re willing to pay $30 million or so for the next 10 years or so. There also are several solid outfielders for sale, but there’s not much more. The pool of available pitchers is especially thin.

Will Jones land a long-term deal worth more than $10 million per? Will he have to accept a one-year contract to reestablish his value? Will he settle for something in between?

This much is known: The Braves have made it clear what they think. Shortly after the season , they told Jones that they no longer were interested.

— Stan McNeal

THE FRANCHISE: ALEX RODRIGUEZ

The notion of signing him was met with shrugs and a series of “Not me” responses. Free-agent third baseman Alex Rodriguez, crowned lord of this offseason after opting out of the final three years of his contract with the Yankees, will play somewhere next season. He is, after all, a franchise player, an MVP, a certain Hall of Famer and, possibly, the future home run king. If his agent, Scott Boras, has his way, A-Rod will make more than $30 million per year to play somewhere. But almost every general manager insists his organization has no interest in shelling out for A-Rod.

Red Sox? No, they’re focused on re-signing Mike Lowell. Mets? They have David Wright at third, thank you very much. Tigers? Nope, they just traded for shortstop Edgar Renteria. Dodgers? Possible, but they’ve yet to speak with Boras. Angels? They’ve kicked the tires, but it’s unlikely their payroll could handle two megacontracts (they’ll need to extend Vladimir Guerrero). Cubs? Makes sense, but the team is for sale. Marlins, Mariners, Giants? Yeah, right.

The strategy, it seems, will be patience. There is likely to be little movement on Rodriguez, at least until the winter meetings next month. That gives Boras time to lay the groundwork for a contract. One executive says, “Once more teams see how Scott wants to structure the deal, in terms of deferred salary and things like that, it might make the whole thing seem less imposing.”

In the meantime, straight answers on Rodriguez will be hard to come by.

— Sean Deveney

THE HUNTED: TORII HUNTER

Torii Hunter is far from the perfect ballplayer. He swings at the first pitch too often, doesn’t walk enough and strikes out too much.

But he is the best center fielder—and perhaps the most desirable player—on the market because he hits for power and catches just about every fly ball that comes into his area code. He’s also a positive clubhouse influence and a great ambassador for the game.

The question is not if Hunter will land at least a five-year, $75 million deal—it’s who will give it to him .

Not likely: the Twins, the only team the 32-year-old Hunter has played for. They offered three years, $45 million during the second half, and Hunter said no.

Possibly: the Yankees. They already have Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Bobby Abreu and Melky Cabrera in the outfield. They also have a ton of money, and Hunter has said he wouldn’t mind playing under the bright lights.

Likely: the Rangers. Hunter has a home in the Dallas area, and the Rangers have the financial wherewithal and a need for an impact center fielder.

— S.M.

THE TRADING CHIP: COCO CRISP

It would be foolish for Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein to say, “We’ve got Jacoby Ellsbury, so we can’t wait to get rid of Coco Crisp.”

Epstein is simply following normal operating procedure when he insists the late-season emergence of Ellsbury in center field doesn’t make Crisp expendable. Epstein says Crisp could be a contributing player even with Ellsbury on the roster.

Still, it’s hard to imagine the Red Sox paying $10.5 million over the next two seasons for what would amount to a caddie for left fielder Manny Ramirez.

It’s harder to imagine Epstein not taking advantage of the huge demand for center fielders. There will be teams left empty-handed when free agents Torii Hunter, Aaron Rowand, Andruw Jones and Mike Cameron come off the market. Epstein will be there to offer Crisp as a consolation prize .

Though he has regressed at the plate in his two seasons in Boston, Crisp still plays top-notch defense; his running catch for the final out of the ALCS was a tremendous play. Given the need for center fielders, there will be interest in Crisp.

— Gerry Fraley

THE NEXT GIL MECHE: CARLOS SILVA

Last offseason Gil Meche was a 28-year-old righthander with 55 career wins coming off an improved but unspectacular season when the Royals gave him a stunning five-year, $55 million deal .

Fast-forward to the present : Carlos Silva is a 28-year-old righthander with 55 career wins coming off an improved but unspectacular season. In a pitching-thin free-agent market , Silva is poised to land a huge deal of his own. Though Meche and Silva have followed similar career paths, they have different styles. Meche is a power pitcher; Silva relies on a sinker and changeup. After giving up a major league-high 38 homers in 2006, Silva allowed only 20 last season, when his ERA dropped from 5.94 to 4.19.

At last week’s G.M. meetings in Orlando, there was talk that teams will try to trade for a starting pitcher before possibly handing over a four-year, $40 million deal to Silva. But this time last year, no one figured Meche would land the kind of deal he did, either.

— S.M.

THE BAGGAGE: BARRY BONDS

In a recent interview on MSNBC, Barry Bonds said, “I have never brought any baggage to a team.”

Hmm. Then why aren’t teams clamoring to sign baseball’s home run king, who is 43 but coming off a season in which he hit 28 home runs in just 340 at-bats?

The Giants have severed ties with their franchise player, and wherever he winds up (except retirement), Bonds will assuredly do the following: bring a gaggle of curious media, anger some fans who see him as a cheater and require the special treatment that was a persistent annoyance in San Francisco. Sorry, Barry, but that’s baggage. Despite all that comes with him, he’ll be a player of interest as the o_ season wears on.

“He is going to help someone as a DH,” says Indians general manager Mark Shapiro, who adds he has no interest because the Indians have Travis Hafner. “He is still, clearly, a middle-of-the-order run producer, and those are not easy to come by.”

Bonds would prefer to play for a contender, but his options may be limited, depending on how the winter shakes out for teams like the Tigers, Angels, Mariners and Yankees. Second-tier teams like the Orioles and Royals could come into play. The Bay Area A’s would be a natural fit, but their youth movement probably quashes that possibility.

No matter where he winds up, Bonds’ new team will have to prepare for a jolt. But, as Shapiro says, “You know that going in. If it was a pure baseball decision, it would be a no-brainer. But there’s no such thing as a pure baseball decision.”

— S.D.

THE AGENTS: SAM AND SETH LEVINSON

Scott Boras will make a grand production out of shopping Alex Rodriguez. Only a few teams, at most, will be involved in a process that is sure to drag deep into the offseason.

More teams will call on ACES, the firm headed by brothers Sam and Seth Levinson. They will be busy.

The Levinsons represent numerous high-quality free agents. Third baseman Mike Lowell and catcher Jorge Posada, who have been key ingredients in championship teams, top the list.

Lowell has been a major player on two World Series winners in the past five seasons, including this past season as a heart-and-soul player with Boston.

In 10 years with Posada as their front-line catcher, the Yankees reached the World Series five times and won it thrice. Posada is coming off a season in which he hit a career-high .338, and his clubhouse value is immense.

Other Levinson clients of note: Royals DH Mike Sweeney, who also is a plus in terms of makeup; enigmatic Padres outfielder Milton Bradley; and Mets second baseman Luis Castillo.

— G.F.

© 2007 The Sporting News





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